Bitcoin tests $64-65K as ETF inflows return, but geopolitics weighs on the market

Bitcoin is trading around $64,100-64,600, roughly flat over the past 24 hours, and has moved right up against the $64,000-65,000 resistance zone it hasn't been able to decisively clear. For context: since hitting its all-time high of $126,210 on October 7, 2025, bitcoin has lost roughly 49% of its value.

How the Market Got Here

Bitcoin started 2026 above $93,000, but by the end of June had fallen to a 21-month low around $60,000. Price has partially recovered since then, but remains technically under pressure: bitcoin trades below its 50-month EMA at around $65,150 — a signal many traders read as a sign of lingering medium-term downward pressure.

What's Happening With Capital Inflows

US spot bitcoin ETFs logged a second consecutive week of net inflows after nearly two months of steady outflows: $75.7 million flowed in over the past week, adding to $197.4 million the week before. But the durability of that reversal is in question — one recent Monday saw $424.7 million pulled from the funds amid fresh military escalation between the US and Iran.

Liquidations Remain Elevated

In June, forced closures of long positions topped $1 billion, and in July traders lost over $100 million more on short positions. Between May and July, several individual days saw liquidations ranging from $498 million to over $900 million — a level noticeably above a calm market baseline.

The Key Recent Catalyst

A resumption of airstrikes between US and Iranian forces was the main trigger for the latest volatility: President Trump declared the ceasefire between the two countries over, and bitcoin, which trades around the clock and therefore prices in geopolitical risk instantly rather than waiting for traditional markets to open, pulled back to around $62,000 — a roughly 2% decline from the prior session.

What This Means in Practice

The return of institutional capital to ETFs is an encouraging signal, but not yet durable enough to offset the market's reaction to geopolitical shocks: a single serious headline can still unwind two weeks of positive inflows within hours. The key levels to watch are resistance at $64,000-65,000 above, and support around $60,000 below, set by late June's low.

This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.