CME hedge funds abandon their structural bitcoin shorts

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says hedge funds on CME have flipped from years of structural short positioning to a net-long stance on bitcoin futures — a rare shift in positioning, reported today by CoinDesk. He argues that running a classic carry strategy is impossible with an aggregate net-long futures position, meaning big players are now genuinely betting on bitcoin's price rising rather than just harvesting a rate spread.

“Hedge funds on CME have flipped net long on bitcoin futures, a rare shift after years of structural short positioning driven by the basis trade. You cannot run a traditional carry trade with an aggregate net-long futures position. The suits are now betting on bitcoin's upside.”

— Ki Young Ju, CEO, CryptoQuant

One important caveat: the claim rests on CryptoQuant's own data, not the official CFTC Commitment of Traders report — the most recent available release, as of August 4, still showed the "leveraged funds" category net short by 7,240 contracts. The next official CFTC report is due around August 14 and could either confirm the flip or show that it happened after the data cutoff.

The reason the short was ever "structural" in the first place is the classic basis trade: funds buy bitcoin on spot or via an ETF while simultaneously selling CME futures, pocketing the premium between the two prices. That premium has collapsed, though: according to analytics firm Glassnode, the three-month annualized CME bitcoin futures basis now sits around 3% — below the roughly 3.8% yield on two-year US Treasuries. The futures basis has trailed the two-year Treasury yield for 157 consecutive days now, dating back to February; per Glassnode, the only comparable stretch on record ran from August 2022 to January 2023, and that one ended at a cycle low.

• Ki Young Ju (CryptoQuant): CME hedge funds have flipped to a net-long bitcoin futures position
• The official CFTC report as of August 4 still shows a net short of 7,240 contracts
• The futures basis (~3%) has trailed the 2-year Treasury yield (~3.8%) for 157 straight days

The shift looks especially notable against a backdrop we covered earlier: bitcoin futures demand had fallen to its lowest level since 2024, and analysts were debating at the time whether institutions were actually leaving the market. Judging by CryptoQuant's fresh data, it looks more like a change in strategy than an exit.

None of this should be read as personalized investment advice.