Peter Brandt predicts the exact day Bitcoin's bear market will be over

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has named a specific date for when he expects the current bitcoin bear cycle to end: "I'll go out on a limb and say we bottom on October 4th," he told Cointelegraph.

How Deep the Drop Could Go

By Brandt's estimate, before the cycle bottom forms, bitcoin could fall below $50,000 and potentially test the high-$40,000 range. He has also pointed to $75,000 as a technical level — a decisive recovery above it would change his bearish view of the market — a level he flagged back in early June 2026, when bitcoin first fell below $69,000.

Why He Doesn't Believe the Bottom Is Already In

Brandt explains his position by noting that markets rarely bottom without the kind of stress and investor capitulation that's typically present at true turning points — and he describes current sentiment as "neutral," meaning not panicked enough for a genuine reversal. He also points to historical data: every major bitcoin bear market since the asset's inception has featured an 80% or greater correction from its peak.

The Logic of the Four-Year Halving Cycle

Brandt's forecast rests on the classic four-year bitcoin halving cycle model, in which bull markets typically peak 16 to 18 months after a halving and bottom roughly a year after that peak. Many market participants believe the current level around $60,000 could already be the cycle bottom, but in Brandt's view, optimism at these levels remains too high for a genuine turning point.

The Long-Term Target

Looking further ahead, Brandt projects the next cycle peak in 2029, in a range of $250,000-300,000 — meaning that after his predicted bottom in October 2026, the market, in his view, still has an entire multi-year bull cycle ahead of it.

Why It Matters

Brandt's forecast is notable less for the specific date — pinpointing the exact day of a bottom is nearly impossible even for an experienced trader — and more for the logic behind it: a genuine market cycle bottom has historically come with pronounced panic and capitulation, not calm "neutral" sentiment. That's exactly why Brandt remains skeptical that the market has already found its floor at current levels — and warns that another leg down may still lie ahead before the next growth phase begins.

This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.