PlanB: bitcoin's road to $500,000 may run through a new low below $53,000

Pseudonymous analyst PlanB, creator of the well-known Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has again flagged the risk of a new local low for bitcoin — even as his own long-term forecast for this cycle still points to $500,000.

What the Stock-to-Flow Model Says

The S2F model ties bitcoin's price to its scarcity — the ratio of existing supply to the rate of new coins mined, which drops sharply after each halving. By PlanB's estimate, for the current 2024-2028 cycle the model implies an average price of roughly $500,000, with the full cycle range potentially spanning $250,000 to $1 million at the peak.

But First, the Risk of a New Bottom

At the same time, PlanB flagged a different signal: in every past bear market, bitcoin only found its true bottom after price dropped below its realized price — the average value at which all coins in circulation last moved on-chain. That level currently sits around $53,000, and bitcoin last traded below it at the tail end of the previous bear market in 2022.

According to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, at the time of the post bitcoin was trading less than 10% away from its aggregate realized price, estimated at around $53,300 — meaning the market was already sitting close to the zone PlanB was warning about.

How the Two Scenarios Fit Together

There's no real contradiction here: PlanB separates a long-term fundamental valuation (what bitcoin "should" be worth given its supply scarcity) from the short-term market price, which can temporarily trade well below that valuation — as it has in every past cycle, before a sustained rally toward new highs eventually followed.

For the market, that means a lasting long-term bullish outlook doesn't rule out a painful near-term drawdown — and a move below $53,000 is exactly the scenario PlanB sees as most likely before this cycle's advance toward its higher levels resumes.

This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.