VanEck: Bitcoin's quiet summer masks a tightening supply picture

Bitcoin's outwardly sluggish summer trading is masking a meaningful tightening in supply structure, according to VanEck analyst Matthew Sigel's July ChainCheck report. Per Bitcoin Magazine, 60.8% of bitcoin's circulating supply hasn't moved in over a year — the 68th percentile of that metric going back to 2012.

Holders are accumulating, not selling

The long-term supply share climbed from 59.1% six months ago to 60.8% now — roughly 0.4 percentage points a month. Another 17.7% of supply sits in the 6-12 month band and could graduate into the long-term category next. VanEck projects the share could reach around 62% in three months and about 63% in six.

The market looks sluggish, but for a reason

Bitcoin traded around $63,742 in mid-July — 33% below its six-month high. Average daily volume was $5.1 billion, down 29% from recent-year norms. Realized volatility sits at 30.4% annualized versus a 43% trailing-year average. In derivatives, the put/call skew widened to +11.4 percentage points (83rd percentile since 2021), and options premium fell 23% to $613.6 million — a pattern analysts read as caution rather than panic.

Miners are having it harder than holders

Implied hashprice has dropped to around $30.6 per petahash/second/day — near multi-year lows — and daily miner revenue is down 39.5% year-over-year to $28.5 million. Yet total miner-held supply (1.785 million BTC) has stayed stable, pointing to managed selling rather than forced capitulation.

What this has meant historically

VanEck notes that periods when the long-term supply share exceeds 60% and keeps rising have historically aligned with above-average returns over 30-day to 2-year horizons. We covered a similar structural-tightening-meets-bottom-hunting logic in our recent piece on Grayscale's bottom call.

Data source: VanEck ChainCheck.

Nothing here should be taken as financial advice — just information to consider.