Bitcoin nears $65,000 as oil, inflation hopes keep macro bid alive

Bitcoin is trading near $64,800, up 1.2% over 24 hours and 1.3% on the week, holding its gains inside a narrow band. The bid right now is coming from macro hopes rather than fresh crypto demand: President Trump pointed to strong employment, better manufacturing data, and cooling inflation, and also raised the possibility of a deal to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The market logic runs like this: reopening the strait would likely pressure oil prices lower, which would ease inflation worries and give Treasury yields and the dollar room to fall — both factors that typically support bitcoin demand. But the trade still depends on several steps lining up in sequence: lower oil has to feed into lower inflation expectations, and those expectations have to pull down real yields and the dollar. If yields stay firm, the whole macro case remains theoretical, and bitcoin likely stays pinned near $65,000. Spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $626 million in net inflows over the past three days, putting the week on track for its best performance since early May.

“Several consecutive days of inflows will be needed to confirm a sustained recovery in institutional demand.”

— Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus

• Bitcoin trades near $64,800, up 1.2% over 24 hours and 1.3% on the week
• Spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $626 million over three days — on track for the best week since early May
• Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 sits around 63%

This directly continues a story we've been tracking for days: yesterday we covered how bitcoin climbed toward $64,500 on ETF inflows and Hormuz hopes, and this morning we looked at why the S&P 500's $2 trillion market-cap gain hasn't spread to crypto yet. For now, the two stories aren't in conflict: bitcoin's rally remains fragile and tied to a conditional macro chain of events, rather than a self-sustaining crypto catalyst.

Nothing here should be taken as financial advice — just information to consider.