CXMT Surges 466% on Debut Day — Nomura Sees Room for 2.4x More

Chinese memory chipmaker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) debuted on Shanghai's STAR Market on July 27, with shares surging 466% on their first day of trading, CNBC reports. It's Asia's biggest IPO of 2026.

• IPO price was 8.66 yuan per share, raising 57.92 billion yuan (about $8.6 billion).
• Shares closed day one at 49 yuan, giving the company a market cap of roughly 3.3 trillion yuan.
• CXMT overtook Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (2.6 trillion yuan) to become China's largest A-share company by market cap, and surpassed Intel in market value.
• Nomura initiated coverage on day one with a "Buy" rating and a 116 yuan target price — nearly 2.4x the closing price.

Nomura's target is built on projected 2028 EPS of 5.8 yuan at a 20x multiple — for comparison, analysts value Micron at 10x and SK Hynix at just 5x. CXMT is currently the world's fourth-largest DRAM maker, and Nomura projects its global DRAM market share will rise from roughly 10% to 18% by the end of 2028, riding explosive demand for memory in AI servers, TechNode notes.

Worth flagging upfront: even the analysts behind the forecast call some of its assumptions — revenue growing from 62 billion yuan in 2025 to 773 billion yuan by 2028, gross margins reaching 90.5% — "unsustainable," more characteristic of a cyclical peak than a long-term norm. The frenzy around CXMT is part of the same story of explosive demand for memory and compute for AI that we covered in Nvidia's talks to guarantee $500 billion in financing for OpenAI's data center.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.