Diamandis explains why SpaceX could become a $10 trillion company

XPRIZE founder Peter Diamandis published a detailed breakdown of why SpaceX could become the first company in history to reach a $10 trillion valuation — and got direct backing from Elon Musk, who replied to the post with a couple of rocket emoji.

The Street doesn't fully understand how to value SPCX, because it keeps trying to price one company

In Diamandis's framing, SpaceX is really five mutually reinforcing businesses at once: Starlink as global communications infrastructure (10 million subscribers, doubling annually, now free-cash-flow positive), an AI compute hyperscaler with contracts worth roughly $28 billion in annualized 2026 revenue (Anthropic around $15B/year, Google around $11B/year, Reflection AI around $1.8B/year), in-house chip manufacturing through the Terafab project in Texas, rocket launches — the cost of reaching orbit has fallen from $54,000/kg on the Space Shuttle to roughly $2,500/kg on Falcon 9, with Starship targeting under $100/kg — and, finally, vertical integration: SpaceX is the only company on the planet that owns the rocket, the satellites, the ground network, and the AI compute layer at once.

Following its IPO, SpaceX is already valued at roughly $1.4 trillion, even as its stock (ticker SPCX) has slid from $225 to around $108-121. Diamandis compares the current situation to Amazon, which bled money for six straight years before becoming one of the world's most valuable companies: "The question isn't SpaceX's current profitability. It's who else is even in this race. Nobody."

• SpaceX's current post-IPO valuation sits around $1.4 trillion
• AI compute contracts alone bring SpaceX roughly $28 billion in annualized 2026 revenue
• Launch costs have fallen over 500x — from $54,000 to under $100 per kg to orbit (Starship's target)

For the crypto market, this debate has direct practical relevance: exposure to SpaceX is available not just through a brokerage account but through crypto infrastructure too — tokenized SPCXx shares on Kraken, a Solana-based equivalent from Backpack, and perpetual futures on OKX and Coinbase. We previously covered how Cathie Wood called SpaceX potentially the most important company in history, as well as how OKX listed perpetual contracts on Robinhood, Qualcomm, Coinbase and Palantir stock — SpaceX fits the same trend of tokenizing marquee Wall Street names for crypto-native traders.

The $10 trillion forecast remains just that — one investor's prediction, however influential. Diamandis himself admits the market currently prices in just one and a half of SpaceX's five business lines, calling the remaining 3.5 "free call options" on trillion-dollar markets. Whether the thesis holds up depends on whether SpaceX — and Musk personally — can once again compress timelines competitors consider fixed.

This piece is informational, not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset.