Hedge funds bet on bitcoin at CME — but 2 charts say wait

Hedge funds on CME have flipped from a structural short to a net-long position on bitcoin futures for the first time in years — a shift flagged by analytics firm CryptoQuant, BeInCrypto reports. We covered this story earlier today: the funds' short positions used to rest on the basis trade — buying bitcoin on spot while selling futures to capture the price gap — and per CFTC data, that setup has now flipped in reverse.

But two independent indicators suggest real demand isn't backing up that bullish positioning yet. The first is the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price gap between Coinbase — where US institutions trade more actively — and the rest of the market. The index has stayed negative since early May, sitting around -0.08, and has been forming a pattern of lower highs and lower lows since July 22 — a sign that demand from large US buyers for actual bitcoin, rather than paper contracts, remains weak.

The second indicator is bitcoin futures open interest, which currently sits around $23 billion — near its yearly low and well below the roughly $48 billion peak seen in October. Low, non-growing open interest means genuinely new money isn't entering the market — participants are more likely rotating existing positions than adding to the overall size of bets outstanding. The picture that emerges is contradictory: hedge funds have formally turned bullish, but neither spot capital inflows nor overall futures market growth are confirming that positioning yet.

• CME hedge funds are net long bitcoin futures for the first time in years
• Coinbase Premium Index has been negative since early May — weak US institutional demand
• Open interest sits around $23B, near a yearly low, versus roughly $48B in October

We already published a full breakdown of the positioning shift itself — including CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju's quote and Glassnode's data on why the basis trade stopped working — earlier today: "CME hedge funds abandon their structural bitcoin shorts". These two charts are a logical continuation of that same story, with a more cautious read on what's actually behind the numbers.

Nothing here should be taken as financial advice — just information to consider.