From 20% market share to zero: Binance.US bets on prediction markets for its comeback

Binance.US CEO Stephen Gregory announced at the Rare Evo conference in Las Vegas that the exchange will file for a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license with the CFTC in August — without it, offering prediction markets to US traders legally is impossible, The Block reports. The application hasn't been filed yet, and review could take months with no guarantee of approval.

Four years ago, Binance.US controlled roughly 20% of the American crypto market. That share has since fallen to nearly zero, according to CoinDesk's indices — following an SEC lawsuit (dismissed in summer 2025), DOJ criminal charges, a $4.3 billion penalty, and former CEO Changpeng Zhao's guilty plea for Bank Secrecy Act violations (a $50 million fine, resignation, and later a presidential pardon), PYMNTS notes. Gregory had already talked about plans to win that share back; the prediction-markets push is a concrete step in that direction.

“Prediction markets are super hot. Everybody's talking about that”

— Stephen Gregory, Binance.US CEO

• A DCM license lets an exchange list futures, options, and event-based contracts for retail customers under federal oversight
• In this market, Binance.US would face Kalshi and Polymarket US, plus recently licensed Gemini and Coinbase, which has partnered with Kalshi on event contracts
• More than a dozen state regulators are challenging sports-related prediction markets, even as the CFTC insists on exclusive federal jurisdiction over event contracts

Gregory's logic: the prediction-markets industry will follow the path of equities, where falling trading commissions force firms to find new revenue streams. Binance.US now operates as an independent entity with strengthened compliance — the rest is up to the regulator.

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